The 2023/24 VIEWS Prediction Challenge: Predicting the Number of Fatalities in Armed Conflict, with Uncertainty
Published in Journal of Peace Research, 2025
Recommended citation: Hegre, H., Vesco, P., Colaresi, M., Vestby, J., et al. (2025). The 2023/24 VIEWS Prediction Challenge: Predicting the Number of Fatalities in Armed Conflict, with Uncertainty. Journal of Peace Research, 62(6). https://doi.org/10.5445/IR/1000184072
This article presents the goals and motivation of the 2023/24 VIEWS Prediction Challenge, the evaluation metrics used to assess forecasts, the benchmark models, and a summary of the submitted contributions. Co-authored with Håvard Hegre, Paola Vesco, Michael Colaresi, Jonas Vestby, and many other participants of the challenge.