Julian Walterskirchen

Julian Walterskirchen

PhD student interested in quantitative conflict research.

Posts by Collection

portfolio

presentations

Presentation at NEPS 2017

Published:

Attended my co-author’s presentation of “A Cross-National Analysis of Forced Population Resettlement in Counterinsurgency Campaigns” at the European Peace Science Conference 2017.

Presentation at COMPTEXT 2022

Published:

We presented “Introducing an Interpretable Deep Learning Approach to Domain-Specific Dictionary Creation: A Use Case for Conflict Prediction” at the COMPTEXT conference 2022.

Presentation at the AFK Methods Workshop 2022

Published:

Presented “ Do alliances deter civil conflict? Assessing the effect of military alliances on the onset of intrastate violence.” at the AFK Methods Empirical Research on Peace and Conflict Workshop 2022 (https://afk-web.de/cms/arbeitskreise-der-afk/arbeitskreis-methoden/).

Presentation at COMPTEXT 2023

Published:

Presented “The Impact of Sanctions Imposition Coordination: A Time-Varying Measure of EU and US Sanctions Coordination in the Cases of Russia, Iran, and North Korea” at the COMPTEXT conference 2023.

Presentation at NEPS 2023

Published:

Attended my co-author’s presentation of “Friend or Foe: Using Aspect-Based Sentiment Analysis to Measure Relations between Member States at the UN General Assembly” at the European Peace Science Conference 2023.

Presentation at the AFK Methods Workshop 2023

Published:

Presented “Friend or Foe: Using Aspect-Based Sentiment Analysis to Measure Relations between Member States at the UN General Assembly” at the AFK Methods Empirical Research on Peace and Conflict Workshop 2023 (https://afk-web.de/cms/arbeitskreise-der-afk/arbeitskreis-methoden/).

Presentation at the CCEW Symposium 2023

Published:

Presented “The Promises and Pitfalls of using Text as Data for Crisis-Early Warning: A Comparative Assessment of NLP Methods for Conflict Prediction” at the Center for Crisis Early Warning Symposium 2023.

publications

A Cross-National Analysis of Forced Population Resettlement in Counterinsurgency Campaigns

Published in Peace Economics, Peace Science and Public Policy, 2019

In this paper we study the use of Forced Population Resettlement in Counterinsurgency Campaigns.

Recommended citation: Böhmelt, Tobias, Dworschak, Christoph, Pilster, Ulrich and Walterskirchen, Julian. "A Cross-National Analysis of Forced Population Resettlement in Counterinsurgency Campaigns" Peace Economics, Peace Science and Public Policy, vol. 26, no. 1, 2020, pp. 20190022. https://doi.org/10.1515/peps-2019-0022 https://doi.org/10.1515/peps-2019-0022

Introducing an Interpretable Deep Learning Approach to Domain-Specific Dictionary Creation: A Use Case for Conflict Prediction

Published in Political Analysis, 2023

In this paper, we introduce an interpretable deep learning approach to automatic dictionary creation for conflict research.

Recommended citation: Häffner, S., Hofer, M., Nagl, M., & Walterskirchen, J. (2023). Introducing an Interpretable Deep Learning Approach to Domain-Specific Dictionary Creation: A Use Case for Conflict Prediction. Political Analysis, 31(4), 481-499. doi:10.1017/pan.2023.7 https://doi.org/10.1017/pan.2023.7

Replication of The Morning After: Report from the Nottingham Replication Games

Replication report in SocArXiv , 2023

As part of the Nottingham Replication Games (I4R) we replicated “The morning after: cabinet instability and the purging of ministers after failed coup attempts in autocracies”.

Recommended citation: Oswald, C., Walterskirchen, J., Häffner, S., Binetti, M. N., & Dworschak, C. (2023, July 5). Replication of The Morning After: Report from the Nottingham Replication Games. https://doi.org/10.31235/osf.io/a2d5p https://doi.org/10.31235/osf.io/a2d5p

Computational and Robustness Reproducibility of UN Peacekeeping and Democratization in Conflict-Affected Countries

Replication report in EconStor , 2024

As part of the Replication Games (I4R) we replicated UN Peacekeeping and Democratization in Conflict-Affected Countries.

Recommended citation: Oswald, C., Walterskirchen, J. (2023, July 5). Computational and Robustness Reproducibility of UN Peacekeeping and Democratization in Conflict-Affected Countries. https://hdl.handle.net/10419/301427 https://hdl.handle.net/10419/301427

Text as Data for Crisis-Early Warning: A Comparative Assessment of NLP Methods for Conflict Prediction

Accepted in Conflict Management and Peace Science , 2026

This paper evaluates the performance of features extracted from a conflict dictionary, two sentiment dictionaries, a word-scaling approach, dynamic topic models, and a transformer model on a classical conflict prediction task.

Recommended citation: Walterskirchen, J. (2026). Text as Data for Crisis-Early Warning: A Comparative Assessment of NLP Methods for Conflict Prediction. Conflict Management and Peace Science https://doi.org/10.1177/07388942261422045

Taking time seriously: Predicting conflict fatalities using temporal fusion transformers

Conditionally accepted in International Interactions , 2026

In this paper we predict conflict fatalities with temporal fusion transformers as part of the 2023/24 edition of the VIEWS Prediction Challenge.

Recommended citation: Walterskirchen J, Oswald C, Häffner S, Binetti MN. Taking time seriously: Predicting conflict fatalities using temporal fusion transformers. Conditionally accepted, International Interactions https://doi.org/10.31235/osf.io/7xu93_v2

teaching

Statistics for Sociel Sciences using R

Undergraduate course, University of Innsbruck, Department of Political Science, 2019

I was teaching the Proseminar Statistics for Sociel Sciences using R to undergraduate Sociology and Political Science students at the University of Innsbruck.

Statistics for Sociel Sciences using R

Undergraduate course, University of Innsbruck, Department of Political Science, 2020

I was teaching the Proseminar Statistics for Sociel Sciences using R to undergraduate Sociology and Political Science students at the University of Innsbruck.

Applied Methods of Social Sciences

Undergraduate Course, University of Innsbruck, Department of Political Science, 2020

I was teaching the Proseminar Applied Methods of Social Sciences to undergraduate Sociology and Political Science students at the University of Innsbruck.

workinprogress

The Impact of Sanctions Imposition Coordination: A Time-Varying Measure of EU and US Sanctions Coordination in the Cases of Russia, Iran, and North Korea

Last updated: December 2023

In this paper, we seek to measure sanctions coordination between the US and the EU using NLP techniques.

Recommended citation: Walterskirchen, J., Häffner, S. (in progress). The Impact of Sanctions Imposition Coordination: A Time-Varying Measure of EU and US Sanctions Coordination in the Cases of Russia, Iran, and North Korea